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| 基于Shapley值的云南省能源消费综合预测方法研究 |
| Research on the comprehensive prediction methods for energy consumption of Yunnan based on the Shapley value |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: Shapley值 指数平滑 系统动力学 能源消费 |
| 英文关键词:Shapley value exponential smoothing model system dynamics model energy consumption |
| 基金项目: |
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| 摘要点击次数: 4442 |
| 全文下载次数: 1957 |
| 中文摘要: |
| 对未来的能源消费进行准确的预测,既能为能源政策及规划的制定提供科学的依据,也是能源发展战略目标制定的基础性工作.通过指数平滑模型和系统动力学模型分别对云南省能源消费进行预测,进一步运用合作博弈中的Shapley值方法,通过分配总误差来确定综合预测模型中各预测模型的权重,以此构建综合预测模型,并对云南省能源消费总量进行预测.预测结果表明,该综合预测模型的预测精度高于选定的各项预测模型,对能源消费的预测是可行、有效的. |
| 英文摘要: |
| An accurate prediction of energy consumption in the future is the groundwork for formulating the strategic objectives of energy development and can provide the scientific basis for setting up energy policy and planning. In this paper, the energy consumption of Yunnan Province was predicted by the exponential smoothing model and the system dynamics model, respectively. Using the Shapley value method for cooperative games, the weight of each predicting model in the comprehensive predicting model was determined by distributing the total error. The comprehensive predicting model was therefrom constructed and used to predict the energy consumption of Yunnan Province. The result showed that the prediction accuracy of the comprehensive predicting model is higher than the individual models selected and the prediction of energy consumption is feasible and effective. |
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